用U统计量揭开大模型推理的神秘面纱
作者:
时间:2026-06-30
阅读量:102次
  • 演讲人: 史成春(LSE,Associate Professor)
  • 时间:2026年7月4日16:00
  • 地点:浙江大学紫金港校区行政楼1417报告厅
  • 主办单位:浙江大学数据科学研究中心

Abstract: Group relative policy optimization (GRPO), a core methodological component of DeepSeekMath and DeepSeek-R1, has emerged as a cornerstone for scaling reasoning capabilities of large language models. Despite its widespread adoption and the proliferation of follow-up works, the theoretical properties of GRPO remain less studied. This paper provides a unified framework to understand GRPO through the lens of classical U-statistics. We demonstrate that the GRPO policy gradient is inherently a U-statistic, allowing us to characterize its mean squared error (MSE), derive the finite-sample error bound and asymptotic distribution of the suboptimality gap for its learned policy. Our findings reveal that GRPO is asymptotically equivalent to an oracle policy gradient algorithm – one with access to a value function that quantifies the goodness of its learning policy at each training iteration – and achieves asymptotically optimal performance within a broad class of policy gradient algorithms. Furthermore, we establish a universal scaling law that offers principled guidance for selecting the optimal group size. Empirical experiments further validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating that the optimal group size is universal, and verify the oracle property of GRPO.

 

Bio:Chengchun is an Associate Professor in the Department of Statistics at LSE. He works at the interface of RL, LLMs and statistics, with applications to ride-sharing and healthcare. His work brings to light the relevance and significance of statistical learning in AI, and demonstrates the usefulness of RL as a framework for policy evaluation and A/B testing in two-sided marketplaces. Chengchun has published over 70 papers, with majority of them accepted in prestigious statistical journals (JRSSB, JASA, AoS) and top machine learning venues (NeurIPS, ICML, KDD, JMLR, CVPR, ICLR). His outstanding contributions have been recognized with esteemed awards such as the Peter Gavin Hall IMS Early Career Prize, IMS Tweedie Award and the Royal Statistical Society Research Prize. He has served as the area editor of NeurIPS and associate editors of prestigious journals JRSS-B, JASA and AoAS.